Cycles

July 17, 2017

Embrace cycles and use them to your advantage. Pretending they don’t exist and attempts to eliminate the part of the cycle you don’t like, the losing streak, doesn’t work.

The investing world doesn’t like cycles. It prefers investment strategies that produce consistent profits with little variation. I believe the collapse in interest rates intensifies this desire for consistent profits. One problem with investing in such strategies is that they’re likely curve-fit to the current market environment.

In the short-term, they can do no wrong; nailing the timing on every trade – buying bottoms and selling tops. The risk, though, hides somewhere in the future when market conditions inevitably change. As a result, the strategy no longer syncs up with the markets and performance comes off the tracks, often resulting in blowups.

http://www.michaelmelissinos.com/blog/cycles/

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